As the United States, Mexico and Canada prepare to review the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this summer, new data highlight its importance to U.S. agriculture — including dairy.
The Agricultural Coalition for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement released an economic analysis showing that agricultural and seafood exports to Canada and Mexico generated $149 billion in U.S. economic output in 2024. Those exports supported nearly 493,000 full-time equivalent jobs and $36 billion in wages.
For dairy producers, the numbers show how closely milk demand connects to North American trade.
Mexico leads dairy export demand
In 2024, U.S. dairy exports to Canada and Mexico totaled about $3.64 billion. Mexico purchased nearly $2.47 billion of that amount. Canada accounted for about $1.18 billion.
Mexico remains the largest export market for U.S. dairy products. Shipments include cheese, nonfat dry milk and dairy ingredients used in food manufacturing.
Nearly one-third of all U.S. agricultural exports by value move to Canada and Mexico. Since USMCA took effect in 2020, export value to the two countries has grown by $20 billion. That represents a 47% increase. Over the same period, exports to the rest of the world grew 18%.
For dairy exporters facing global price volatility, North America has provided relative stability.
Economic ripple effects beyond the farm
The report used a 2024 base-year economic model to measure impact. It found that every $1 in agricultural exports under USMCA drives an additional $2.45 in economic activity.
Of the total $149 billion contribution:
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$70 billion came from direct production impacts, including grain and dairy farming.
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$47 billion resulted from indirect activity such as transportation, utilities and wholesale trade.
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$32 billion stemmed from induced impacts, including household spending in rural communities.
Together, USMCA-related agricultural trade contributed $64 billion to U.S. GDP and supported $13 billion in tax revenue in 2024.
In dairy regions, those impacts reach well beyond the farm gate. Processing plants, trucking companies, feed suppliers and local service businesses all depend on steady export demand.
Review period begins this summer
The three countries must begin a formal review of USMCA by July 2026. Leaders will decide whether to renew the agreement, update specific provisions or shift to annual consultations.
Coalition members support renewal with targeted improvements. They argue that predictable trade rules support long-term investment and processing capacity.
The agreement’s dispute settlement system has already addressed trade tensions. A recent ruling sided with the United States in a case involving Mexico’s restrictions on genetically modified corn.
For dairy, past disputes over Canada’s tariff-rate quota allocations have shown the importance of enforceable market access rules.
What it means for dairy producers
The data underscore how strongly U.S. dairy demand depends on cross-border trade. Continued access to Mexican buyers in particular influences milk utilization and plant throughput.
As the review begins, dairy producers and processors will watch for signs of continuity. Changes to the agreement could affect export flows and future expansion plans.
For now, USMCA remains a central driver of export-based milk demand and rural economic activity across U.S. dairy regions.
